Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $83,500$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(2.25 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(88.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{66,824.1}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 47.6)}}\) (asimptote \(66,824.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,884$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(4.14 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(107.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,704.4}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 38.8)}}\) (asimptote \(9,704.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $55,256$ on 2020-08-27

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $429,507$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(9.76 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(89.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{284,572.1}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 44.4)}}\) (asimptote \(284,572.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,996$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.33 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(124.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,048.2}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 34.9)}}\) (asimptote \(28,048.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $250,135$ on 2020-08-27

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $332,509$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(8.89 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(83.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{300,885.0}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 57.5)}}\) (asimptote \(300,885.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $41,564$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.51 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(94.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,572.3}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 45.3)}}\) (asimptote \(40,572.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $289,381$ on 2020-08-27

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $263,949$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(9.83 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(112.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{242,490.3}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 44.7)}}\) (asimptote \(242,490.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $35,463$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.36 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(108.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,628.1}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.7)}}\) (asimptote \(34,628.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,932$ on 2020-08-27

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $83,898$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,712.4}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 97.2)}}\) (asimptote \(89,712.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,820$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.65 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(77.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,674.2}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 55.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,674.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $78,078$ on 2020-08-27

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $297,485$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(7.44 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(90.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{216,492.9}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 46.3)}}\) (asimptote \(216,492.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $30,581$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.25 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(108.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,651.2}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 40.1)}}\) (asimptote \(29,651.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $180,633$ on 2020-08-27

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $70,984$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.84 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(88.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{54,853.4}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 48.2)}}\) (asimptote \(54,853.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,244$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(2.63 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(110.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,110.1}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 39.4)}}\) (asimptote \(6,110.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $63,911$ on 2020-08-27

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $28,453$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(9.88 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(99.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,843.4}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 45.1)}}\) (asimptote \(25,843.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,777$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(650 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(94.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,731.3}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 44.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,731.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,312$ on 2020-08-27

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Belarus recovered 97%
Denmark recovered 66%
Armenia recovered 55%
Russia recovered 33%
Malta recovered 6%

Belarus⮸

Population $9,449,323$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $71,165$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.31 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{68,772.6}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 73.0)}}\) (asimptote \(68,772.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $662$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(93.4 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{688.8}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 82.7)}}\) (asimptote \(688.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $853$ on 2020-08-27

Denmark⮸

Population $5,792,202$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $17,052$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(4.72 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(90.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,138.5}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 49.8)}}\) (asimptote \(14,138.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $624$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(279 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(115.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{605.0}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 34.5)}}\) (asimptote \(605.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,293$ on 2020-08-27

Armenia⮸

Population $2,963,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $43,270$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(2.98 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,937.8}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 105.1)}}\) (asimptote \(43,937.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $864$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(59.5 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{889.4}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 97.7)}}\) (asimptote \(889.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,418$ on 2020-08-27

Russia⮸

Population $145,934,462$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $972,972$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.23 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{943,332.1}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 84.8)}}\) (asimptote \(943,332.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $16,758$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,167.2}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 87.2)}}\) (asimptote \(17,167.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $165,585$ on 2020-08-27