Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $83,500$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(2.25 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(88.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{66,824.1}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 47.6)}}\) (asimptote \(66,824.1\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,884$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(4.14 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(107.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,704.4}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 38.8)}}\) (asimptote \(9,704.4\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $55,256$ on 2020-08-27
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $429,507$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(9.76 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(89.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{284,572.1}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 44.4)}}\) (asimptote \(284,572.1\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,996$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(1.33 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(124.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,048.2}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 34.9)}}\) (asimptote \(28,048.2\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $250,135$ on 2020-08-27
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $332,509$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(8.89 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(83.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{300,885.0}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 57.5)}}\) (asimptote \(300,885.0\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $41,564$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(1.51 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(94.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,572.3}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 45.3)}}\) (asimptote \(40,572.3\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $289,381$ on 2020-08-27
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $263,949$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(9.83 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(112.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{242,490.3}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 44.7)}}\) (asimptote \(242,490.3\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $35,463$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(1.36 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(108.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,628.1}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.7)}}\) (asimptote \(34,628.1\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $21,932$ on 2020-08-27
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $83,898$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(1.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,712.4}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 97.2)}}\) (asimptote \(89,712.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,820$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(1.65 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(77.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,674.2}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 55.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,674.2\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $78,078$ on 2020-08-27
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $297,485$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(7.44 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(90.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{216,492.9}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 46.3)}}\) (asimptote \(216,492.9\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $30,581$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(1.25 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(108.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,651.2}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 40.1)}}\) (asimptote \(29,651.2\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $180,633$ on 2020-08-27
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $70,984$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(1.84 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(88.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{54,853.4}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 48.2)}}\) (asimptote \(54,853.4\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,244$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(2.63 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(110.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,110.1}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 39.4)}}\) (asimptote \(6,110.1\))
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $63,911$ on 2020-08-27
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $28,453$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(9.88 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(99.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,843.4}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 45.1)}}\) (asimptote \(25,843.4\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,777$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(650 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(94.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,731.3}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 44.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,731.3\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,312$ on 2020-08-27